The year 2025 has become a turning point in Canada’s immigration policy. Amidst heightened public attention to migration issues, the government continues to balance between the need to supply the economy with a workforce, support the education sector, and limit population growth through temporary immigration. Two main factors — the record increase in the IRCC application backlog and a significant reduction in the number of new students and workers — define the current state of affairs and create challenges for both applicants and the state.
Growth Dynamics of the IRCC Backlog
The IRCC backlog refers to applications that were not processed within the official service standards.
For example, Express Entry applications should be processed within 6 months, and family sponsorships within 12 months.
If this timeframe is exceeded, the application is considered to be in the backlog.
As of August 31, 2025, there were 958,850 applications in the backlog — the highest figure of the year.
For comparison: in March, the figure was 779,900. Thus, in just half a year, the backlog grew by almost 180,000 applications.
Table 1. IRCC Backlog Dynamics (March – August 2025)
Month | Total Backlog | Change from Previous Month |
March | 779,900 | -5.03% |
April | 760,200 | -2.53% |
May | 802,000 | +5.5% |
June | 842,800 | +5.02% |
July | 901,700 | +6.98% |
August | 958,850 | +6.33% |
Key points:
- Permanent Residence (PR): 901,800 applications in process, nearly half of them in the backlog.
For Express Entry, the percentage dropped from 21% in July to 20% in August,
but for PNP it sharply increased — 49% compared to 25% at the end of 2024. - Family Sponsorship: 17% of applications are backlogged — the highest rate since August 2023, indicating growing delays in family reunification.
- Temporary Residence: Over 1 million applications in processing, of which 437,350 are in backlog.
The largest growth occurred in student visa cases, where the backlog share rose from 23% to 32% in just one month.
This situation reflects structural issues within IRCC: even with substantial resources, the department fails to process applications within the prescribed timelines.
Decline in the Number of New Temporary Residents
Alongside the backlog growth, a significant drop in the number of new temporary residents has been observed.
In July 2025, only 26,185 new students and workers arrived in Canada — 20,550 fewer than in July 2024.
Table 2. Arrival of Temporary Residents in July 2024–2025
Category | July 2024 | July 2025 | Change |
New Workers | 29,595 | 18,500 | -37% |
New Students | 17,140 | 7,685 | -55% |
Total | 46,735 | 26,185 | -20,550 |
Cumulative data:
- From January to July 2025, there were 235,070 fewer new students and workers compared to the same period in 2024.
- From June to July 2025, the number of newcomers decreased by another 7.29%.
This trend reflects the government’s deliberate policy to reduce the share of temporary residents to below 5% of the population.
Current Number of Temporary Residents
As of July 2025, there is a clear divergence:
the number of students is decreasing, while the number of workers remains stable or even grows.
- Students: The number of study permit holders decreased by 119,705 compared to July 2024
and by 47,195 in just one month (June–July 2025) — the sharpest drop in recent years. - Workers: The number of work permit holders increased by 71,360 year-over-year,
showing strong labour demand, though a small decline occurred in July 2025 (-9,670 vs. June). - Individuals with both study & work permits: a sharp fall from 356,380 in July 2024 to 286,465 in July 2025.
These indicators reveal a “transition effect” — many students move to work permits after obtaining PGWP.
However, due to the severe limitation on new study permits in 2024–2025, a future decline in the workforce is expected.
Political and Legal Context
The reduction of temporary residents has become a politically charged issue.
Pierre Poilievre, leader of the Conservative Party, called for a complete elimination of the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP),
claiming the government exceeded its quotas.
However, his claim was inaccurate, since the official statistics include both new permits and extensions.
A key driver of foreign worker numbers is the International Mobility Program (IMP),
which covers most work permits, while TFWP plays a smaller role.
According to the Immigration Levels Plan 2025–2027:
- In 2025, the IMP target is 285,750 new arrivals,
but in 2026, this figure will be cut by more than half — to 128,700. - For TFWP, the target remains unchanged — 82,000 annually.
This confirms the government’s intent to gradually reduce the inflow of temporary workers, especially through IMP.
Forecast for 2026: Expected Changes and Challenges
- Reduction of IMP and Labour Market Implications
According to the Immigration Levels Plan, the number of new arrivals through IMP will decline from 285,750 to 128,700 in 2026 — a 55% reduction.
Expected consequences:
- Labour shortages in sectors reliant on temporary workers — hospitality, services, logistics.
- Increased role of PNP and Express Entry — provinces will face greater pressure to fill workforce gaps via permanent programs.
- Tougher competition — applicants will need to demonstrate stronger economic value to secure nominations or invitations.
- Student Visa Restrictions
The 2024–2025 period saw a sharp drop in new study permits.
In 2026, the impact will become more visible:
- Reduced funding for universities and colleges that rely heavily on international students.
- Fewer PGWP holders in 3–4 years, leading to lower availability of young skilled workers.
- Stronger competition among applicants, as the government prioritizes strategic fields (STEM, healthcare).
- Impact on Family and PR Programs
With the federal government reducing temporary immigration, pressure on permanent residence programs will intensify:
- Family Sponsorship could see further backlog growth unless IRCC expands processing capacity.
- Express Entry and PNP may receive extra quotas to offset reduced temporary inflows.
- H&C and other humanitarian pathways may face more applications from those unable to maintain temporary status.
- Political Risks
Immigration is becoming a core battleground in Canadian politics. In 2026, one can expect:
- New Conservative initiatives aimed at further limiting temporary programs.
- Provincial pressure to increase allocations for sectors like agriculture and construction.
- Potential court challenges if new measures are deemed excessive or discriminatory.
- General Outlook
The year 2026 may mark a structural transformation of Canada’s immigration system:
- Fewer temporary residents;
- Greater pressure on PR programs;
- Persistently high backlogs, especially in student and family streams;
- Need for applicants to focus on permanent pathways rather than temporary ones.
Conclusions for 2026
For prospective applicants, the main challenge will be policy unpredictability and reduced chances for temporary permits.
Those already in Canada with work or study permits should maximize opportunities for transition to PR through PNP, Express Entry, or H&C.
Newcomers planning to apply should focus on long-term immigration goals and prepare for extended processing times.
Final Conclusions
The state of immigration processes in Canada in 2025 reveals a dual challenge:
- Administrative: Growing backlogs, especially in student visas and family sponsorship, are causing serious delays and uncertainty.
- Political: Government measures have reduced the number of new students and workers, potentially affecting the labour market and education sector in the medium term.
For applicants, this means the need for careful strategic planning, use of alternative programs (notably Express Entry and PNP), and readiness for longer wait times.
For the government, it highlights the need to balance migration control with economic and social integration goals.
