By November 1, 2025, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) will present the Immigration Levels Plan for 2026–2028, which will define the government’s strategic direction in the areas of permanent and temporary immigration. Annual IRCC plans reflect the balance between economic interests, demographic necessity, and social stability.
It is expected that the new three-year plan will continue the course toward stabilizing immigration flows, reducing the number of temporary residents, reforming the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP), expanding the role of Express Entry for in-Canada candidates, and increasing the share of francophone immigrants.
Stabilization of Permanent Residence Levels
The government’s key benchmark is less than 1% of Canada’s population per year. Given the projected population of 41.65 million people (as of July 1, 2025), the upper limit for permanent resident admissions in 2027 will be approximately 416,500 people.
The government has already implemented a significant reduction — in the 2025–2027 plan, target admissions were reduced by 20–27% compared to the previous plan.
Overall Targets for Permanent Resident Admissions
| Year | 2025–2027 Plan (published 2024) | 2024–2026 Plan (published 2023) | Change % |
| 2025 | 395,000 | 500,000 | −21.0 % |
| 2026 | 380,000 | 500,000 | −24.0 % |
| 2027 | 365,000 | – | – |
Thus, federal policy is shifting from aggressive immigration growth to regulated stabilization, allowing provinces, employers, and integration systems to adapt.
Express Entry: Priority for In-Canada Candidates
Despite the overall reduction, the Express Entry category targets increased by more than 6% due to system restructuring. Instead of the former Federal High Skilled (FHS) category, two new ones have been introduced — Federal Economic Priorities and In-Canada Focus — reflecting the shift toward candidates who already work or study in Canada.
Targets for Express Entry Economic Categories
| Year | Federal Economic Priorities | In-Canada Focus | Federal High Skilled (previous plans) | Total | Change % (from FHS) |
| 2025 | 41,700 | 82,980 | 117,500 | 124,680 | +6.1 % |
| 2026 | 47,400 | 75,830 | 117,500 | 123,230 | +4.9 % |
| 2027 | 47,800 | 70,930 | – | 118,730 | – |
This demonstrates a transition to targeted draws based on occupational and language priorities, particularly for francophone candidates, as well as the regularization of temporary workers already integrated into Canadian society.
Provincial Nominee Program (PNP): Quota Review and Flexibility
The 2025–2027 plan sharply reduced federal PNP targets — by half compared with the previous plan. However, afterward many provinces received increased allocations following negotiations with the federal government.
PNP Targets
| Year | 2025–2027 Plan | 2024–2026 Plan | Change % |
| 2025 | 55,000 | 120,000 | −54.2 % |
| 2026 | 55,000 | 120,000 | −54.2 % |
| 2027 | 55,000 | – | – |
The 2024 reduction aimed at temporary stabilization, but by 2025 IRCC had already begun returning to growth by providing additional nomination spaces to provinces. It is expected that in the 2026–2028 plan, the government will adjust quotas upward for provinces experiencing acute labour shortages.
Temporary Residents: Population Control and Program Reform
After implementing a new methodology in 2025, IRCC will continue to include temporary residents within the overall immigration plan. The goal is to reduce their share to less than 5% of the population by the end of 2027.
Targets for Temporary Programs (arrival levels)
| Year | International Mobility | Temporary Foreign Workers | Students | Total | Change % (year-over-year) |
| 2025 | 285,750 | 82,000 | 305,900 | 673,650 | – |
| 2026 | 128,700 | 82,000 | 305,900 | 516,600 | −23.3 % |
| 2027 | 155,700 | 82,000 | 305,900 | 543,600 | +5.2 % |
Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a “targeted approach” in the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP), focused on strategically important sectors.
Key changes over the past 18 months:
• moratorium on LMIAs in regions with unemployment above 6%;
• increase of minimum wages for high-skilled streams;
• reduction of the share of foreign workers in staff composition;
• restriction of open spousal permits to occupations TEER 0–1 and partially TEER 2–3.
These steps are aimed at ensuring alignment between immigration objectives, labour market needs, and social integration.
Francophone Immigration: Government Strategic Priority
IRCC has repeatedly stated that francophone immigration outside Quebec remains a central element of national policy. In the 2025–2027 plan, the following phased targets were set:
• 8.5% in 2025,
• 9.5% in 2026,
• 10% in 2027.
By 2029, the Carney government plans to raise this indicator to 12%.
To achieve this goal, IRCC continues to implement the following initiatives:
• special Express Entry category-based draws for francophone candidates;
• launch of the Francophone Community Immigration Pilot;
• additional funding for francophone organizations that help immigrants integrate.
This is not only a cultural policy but also a mechanism of regional development — especially for francophone communities in Ontario, Manitoba, New Brunswick, and Alberta.
International Students: Stable Quotas and the New PAL System
Despite uncertainty regarding future changes, current targets remain stable for three years — 305,900 students annually.
Projected Student Arrival Numbers
| Year | Number of Students | Change % |
| 2025 | 305,900 | – |
| 2026 | 305,900 | 0 % |
| 2027 | 305,900 | 0 % |
To ensure compliance with these limits, the Government of Canada introduced an annual cap on study permit applications, monitored through Provincial Attestation Letters (PALs). Each student must obtain confirmation from the province that their place is counted within the national quota. The cap is updated annually, usually in January.
This mechanism is designed to curb oversaturation of the education sector, reduce pressure on the rental housing market, and ensure an adequate level of student services.
Conclusions
The 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan will become a turning point in the development of Canada’s immigration system. The government is expected to focus on the following priorities:
• stabilizing the number of permanent residents (below 1% of the population);
• reducing the number of temporary residents to <5%;
• flexible management of PNP quotas;
• supporting in-Canada candidates through Express Entry;
• strengthening the francophone stream and maintaining cultural balance;
• controlled admission of foreign students.
Thus, Canada is shifting from a quantitative to a qualitative approach in immigration, seeking to ensure economic efficiency, social integration, and sustainable population growth in the medium term.
