The recent update of IRCC’s online tool for tracking processing times has drastically changed the expectations picture for applicants. After the update “earlier this month,” the tool began displaying more personalized processing-time estimates based on the submission date for individual types of applications. As a result, there has been a significant increase in processing times for citizenship applications as well as for the economic programs Atlantic Immigration Program (AIP), Start-Up Visa (SUV), and Federal Self-Employed Persons Program.
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1) Atlantic Immigration Program (AIP)
AIP records one of the largest increases among economic pathways. IRCC also shows 13,100 applications awaiting a decision (at the time of writing).
AIP: Change in Processing Times
Application type | Current processing time (Oct 27) | Time as of Oct 4 | Percentage increase |
AIP | 37 months | 13 months | 184.6 % |
Brief summary — analysis:
The increase from 13 to 37 months (+184.6 %) creates a serious gap between the PR waiting period and the validity of typical AIP work permits (up to 2 years). Since AIP applicants are not eligible for a Bridging Open Work Permit (BOWP), most candidates risk losing their right to work before receiving a PR decision.
Practical consequences and provincial steps:
Approved workers in the Atlantic provinces with employer-specific work permits may find themselves without valid status while awaiting PR.
New Brunswick announced a temporary measure to issue work permits to candidates affected by the increased queues. Whether other provinces will follow remains unknown.
Program model reminder:
AIP is an employer-driven program. It requires:
- An offer from a designated employer in one of the Atlantic provinces;
• Provincial endorsement of this offer.
2) Start-Up Visa (SUV)
The Start-Up Visa provides PR to entrepreneurs who have obtained support from a designated organization. Many founders first arrive on a work permit tied to such an organization while their PR application is being processed.
Start-Up Visa: Change in Processing Times
Application type | Current processing time (Oct 27) | Time as of Oct 4 | Percentage increase |
Start-Up Visa | more than 10 years | 53 months | 126.4 %* |
* The 126.4 % calculation assumes that “more than 10 years” = exactly 10 years (120 months). The actual increase may be significantly higher.
Brief summary — analysis:
The “more than 10 years” estimate effectively paralyzes forecasting for start-up teams. Even if founders hold temporary work permits, the extremely long queues undermine investment appeal and business planning and increase status-interruption risks.
3) Federal Self-Employed Persons Program
This is a PR program for applicants with relevant experience in cultural activities or sports who can make a “significant contribution” to Canada. The program was paused in 2024 and is expected to remain frozen until 2027.
Federal Self-Employed Persons: Change in Processing Times
Application type | Current processing time (Oct 27) | Time as of Oct 4 | Percentage increase |
Federal Self-Employed Persons | more than 10 years | 61 months | 96.72 %* |
* The 96.72 % calculation assumes “more than 10 years” = 10 years (120 months). The actual percentage may be higher.
Brief summary — analysis:
Even before the pause, processing was slow; now “more than 10 years” means previously filed cases move extremely slowly. For cultural and sports professionals this creates barriers to career planning, contracts, and tours, and threatens loss of time-sensitive opportunities.
4) Canadian Citizenship: Steady Increase in 2025
From January to October 2025, naturalization processing times increased by 6 months — an 85.7 % rise since the start of the year.
Citizenship: Dynamics in 2025
Month | Estimated processing time |
January | 7 months |
February | 8 months |
March | 9 months |
April | 8 months |
May | 10 months |
June | 10 months |
July | 10 months |
August | 10 months |
September | 11 months |
October (current) | 13 months |
Brief summary — analysis:
Despite minor spring fluctuations, the overall trend is slowdown. Citizenship applicants should account for an additional 6 months of waiting when planning (travel, work, rights, and civic obligations).
5) Humanitarian and Refugee Categories: Sharp Surge in 2025
According to the new tool, for applications filed in January 2025, the estimated waiting time was 73 months (6 years 1 month). The current time at writing is 99 months (8 years 3 months), which means +26 months or +35.6 % in less than a year.
Processing time for Humanitarian & Compassionate (H&C) applications both in Quebec and outside it has also risen to more than 10 years.
Protected Persons / Refugees and H&C: Current Estimates
Category | Benchmark (Jan 2025) | Current time (at writing) | Change |
Protected Persons and Convention Refugees (outside Quebec) | 73 months (6 y 1 m) | 99 months (8 y 3 m) | +26 m (35.6 %) |
H&C (in and outside Quebec) | ~ 8 years | more than 10 years | — |
Brief summary — analysis:
Delays of 8–10 + years for vulnerable categories create prolonged legal uncertainty. This complicates integration, access to stable work and housing, and may deepen social risks for families awaiting a decision.
Consolidated Table of All Programs and Categories
Consolidated Overview of Queues and Changes
Program / Category | Current time (Oct / at writing) | Previous benchmark (start of month / January) | Change / Comparison | Additional notes |
Atlantic Immigration Program (AIP) | 37 months | 13 months (Oct 4) | +184.6 % | ~13,100 applications in queue; no BOWP; risk of work-eligibility loss; NB introduced temporary measure |
Start-Up Visa (SUV) | more than 10 years | 53 months | +126.4 %* | Entrepreneurs with DO support; often arrive on WP while awaiting PR |
Federal Self-Employed Persons | more than 10 years | 61 months | +96.72 %* | Focus: culture/sport; pause from 2024 to expected 2027 |
Citizenship (naturalization) | 13 months (Oct) | 7 months (Jan) | +6 m (85.7 %) | Steady growth through 2025 |
Protected Persons & Refugees (outside Quebec) | 99 months | 73 months (Jan) | +26 m (35.6 %) | Sharp jump in 2025 |
H&C (in and outside Quebec) | more than 10 years | ~ 8 years | — | Significant deterioration in waiting times |
* Percentages for “more than 10 years” are calculated conditionally based on exactly 10 years (120 months). The actual increase may be higher.
Brief summary — analysis:
All categories except citizenship show extreme or prolonged waiting times. The most affected are economic pathways outside Express Entry (AIP, SUV, Self-Employed) and vulnerable humanitarian / refugee files.
Conclusions
The updated IRCC tool made processing-time estimates more personalized but revealed massive backlogs in several streams.
AIP: Record-high processing time (up to 37 months) combined with lack of BOWP creates a systemic risk of work-eligibility interruption. New Brunswick’s temporary solution shows provincial efforts to cope; responses from other provinces remain uncertain.
SUV and Federal Self-Employed Persons: “More than 10 years” of waiting effectively freezes entrepreneurial and creative plans, harms investment and talent mobility; for Self-Employed this is aggravated by the program’s pause until 2027.
Citizenship: +6 months since early 2025 (up to 13 months in October) is an indicator of overall slowdown even for a mature process.
Protected Persons / Refugees and H&C: Queues of 8–10 + years increase social vulnerability and contradict expectations of timely decisions in the most sensitive categories.
Overall summary:
The current picture of processing times signals the need to revise application strategies and manage status proactively: plan permit extensions where possible, record risks of losing work eligibility, prepare evidence bases, and monitor provincial temporary solutions like New Brunswick’s initiative. For entrepreneurial and humanitarian routes, it is advisable to consider alternative pathways or staged entry to minimize risks caused by excessively long queues.
Consultation with an experienced immigration representative will help adapt your plan to the new IRCC timelines and tools and make decisions suited to your situation.
