On November 4, 2025, the Government of Canada released the new Immigration Levels Plan for the years 2026–2028. After a one-time reduction in 2025, the targets for the Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) are being restored almost to the record levels of 2023–2024 and are stabilizing over a three-year horizon.
The plan provides for 91,500 admissions through the PNP in 2026 and 92,500 in 2027–2028. Compared to 2025 (55,000), this is a recovery of 66.36%. The share of the PNP within total economic admissions returns to a stable ~38%, which confirms Ottawa’s confidence in a decentralized selection model, where provinces targetedly close their own labour gaps.
Dynamics of PNP targets in the context of economic immigration
The table reproduces the figures you provided: annual PNP targets, total economic admissions, and the share of the PNP.
Year | PNP (targets) | Total economic immigration | PNP share
2028 | 92,500 | 244,700 | 37.80%
2027 | 92,500 | 244,700 | 37.80%
2026 | 91,500 | 239,800 | 38.16%
2025 | 55,000 | 232,150 | 23.69%
2024 | 110,000 | 281,135 | 39.13%
2023 | 105,500 | 266,210 | 39.63%
2022 | 83,500 | 241,850 | 34.53%
2021 | 80,800 | 232,500 | 34.75%
Comment: The years 2026–2028 lag only 1–1.5% behind the peaks of 2023–2024 in the specific weight of the PNP in total economic admissions. This means a return to the “norm” after the one-time adjustment of 2025.
Why the government is expanding the PNP again
The restoration of the PNP aligns with the government’s three-year strategy:
- to balance population growth with labour demand;
- to reduce dependence on temporary statuses;
- to strengthen regional planning (housing, health care, education) through more predictable PR flows;
- to give provinces a tool for retaining workers, especially after 2025, when the additional CRS points for arranged employment were removed from Express Entry. Under such conditions, nomination through the PNP becomes a key HR mechanism for employers.
Historically, the PNP was launched in the late 1990s with several hundred selections per year. Today, it is the largest economic channel to permanent residence, which carefully complements Express Entry: the federal system ranks by CRS across the country, and the provinces select directly according to local demand.
Methodology of provincial quota projections (2026–2028)
The basic 2025 quotas (official or publicly announced) were used, to which the same increases were applied for all:
• 2026: +66.36% to the 2025 base;
• 2027 and 2028: +68.18% to the 2025 base.
This preserves proportionality between jurisdictions and provides a benchmark until IRCC and the provinces agree on and announce the actual allocations at the beginning of 2026.
Example of calculation (Ontario):
2025 base 10,750 → 2026: 10,750 × 1.6636 ≈ 17,872;
2027–2028: 10,750 × 1.6818 ≈ 18,087.
Rounding is done to the nearest whole number.
Important: the sum of the projections in the table below is not required to coincide with the nationwide admissions target, because:
• provincial quotas are nominations, while national targets are admissions/landings;
• part of admissions reflects dependent family members;
• there are time lags (nomination in one year → admission in the next year);
• Quebec has a separate system, and Nunavut does not have a PNP.
Projected PNP quotas by provinces/territories (2026–2028)
Province/territory | 2025 quota | 2026 (projection) | 2027 (projection) | 2028 (projection)
Ontario | 10,750 | 17,872 | 18,087 | 18,087
British Columbia | 4,000 | 6,654 | 6,727 | 6,727
Alberta | 4,971 | 8,266 | 8,358 | 8,358
Manitoba | 4,750 | 7,904 | 8,001 | 8,001
Saskatchewan | 3,625 | 6,033 | 6,096 | 6,096
New Brunswick | 2,750 | 4,573 | 4,696 | 4,696
Nova Scotia | 3,150 | 5,236 | 5,299 | 5,299
Prince Edward Island | 1,025 | 1,704 | 1,724 | 1,724
Newfoundland and Labrador | 1,525 | 2,537 | 2,565 | 2,565
Yukon | 215 | 357 | 362 | 362
Northwest Territories | 150 | 249 | 253 | 253
Regional analysis:
— Ontario will maintain leadership (around 18 thousand nominations). For inland candidates this means competitive but predictable demand for local experience and education.
— Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba are essentially returning to the typical “pre-reduction” levels of admissions, which expands TR-to-PR channels for international graduates and TFW.
— The Atlantic region (Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador) demonstrates the highest relative growth (>65%). Due to the challenge of retention after obtaining PR, requests for additional allocations during the year are possible.
— Small territories (Yukon, NWT) show symmetrical recovery, remaining niche but important for specific profiles.
How to read the numbers: admissions vs nominations vs ITA
- Admissions (landings) — the actual number of individuals granted permanent residence in a given year.
• Nominations (allocations) — how many applicants a province can nominate during the year; this does not equal the number of admissions in the same year, primarily due to time lags.
• ITA — Invitation to Apply. ITAs are always more numerous than nominations to account for refusals and invalid submissions.
Consequence: if a province has 7,900 nominations in 2026, this does not mean 7,900 admissions that year; part will “land” in 2027 due to processing times, medical examinations, and security screening.
What this means for candidates and students
The increase in targets creates a wave of opportunities in 2026 and beyond:
— more selection rounds and a wider list of in-demand occupations;
— a faster cycle of processing nominations, since provinces must reach the agreed allocations;
— an advantage for “inland” profiles: international graduates (especially PGWP holders) and temporary workers with local experience and a job offer;
— the BOWP option after submitting the PR application with a provincial nomination to maintain continuous employment;
— an alternative to Express Entry for profiles with lower CRS, TEER 4–5 candidates, entrepreneurs, and those applying from outside Canada if their profile matches provincial demand.
PNP and Express Entry: how they complement each other
PNP and EE are not competitors but elements of a balanced architecture:
• enhanced streams are connected with EE: a nomination adds +600 CRS, practically guaranteeing an ITA;
• base streams are outside EE: first a provincial nomination, then a separate PR application to IRCC.
For 2026–2028, the PNP is approaching the federal streams in terms of the volume of admissions, remaining the key driver of regional strategy. Against the background of the removal of additional CRS points for arranged employment in 2025, the importance of the PNP for employers has increased, because provincial nomination makes it easier to retain international talent.
How provinces adapted in 2024–2025 and why it matters now
Last year’s reduction was reflected in the January 2025 allocations, causing program adjustments:
— British Columbia suspended the launch of three streams for new graduates and introduced a “waitlist” for International Post-Graduate after 01.09.2024.
— Nova Scotia prioritized health care, social support, and construction for applicants with permits expiring in 2025.
— Prince Edward Island targeted health care, trades, and childcare, as well as other sectors with labour shortages.
— New Brunswick focused on health, education, construction and temporarily paused new EOIs for the Strategic Initiative.
— Saskatchewan restricted overseas selection (exceptions: health care, agriculture, skilled trades) and introduced a 25% cap for transport, retail, and hospitality.
Since January, most jurisdictions (except Ontario and PEI) have negotiated increases in nominations, which indicated the real labour-market need. The new 2026–2028 plan consolidates this shift.
Comparison of immigration levels plans (as previously released)
Year | Plan 2025–2027 (published 2024) | Plan 2024–2026 (published 2023)
2025 | 55,000 | 120,000
2026 | 55,000 | 120,000
2027 | 55,000 | —
Practical advice for applicants and employers for 2026
Applicants:
— synchronize your NOC and TEER with the current lists of in-demand occupations in the province;
— for profiles with lower CRS — keep both routes open: enhanced and base;
— PGWP graduates: plan your TR-to-PR with BOWP in mind to avoid interruption of employment;
— prepare evidence of ties to the province (valid employment, education, residence, family ties), as these often affect ranking/access.
Employers:
— revise your HR strategy: if previously you relied on additional CRS for arranged employment, now plan PNP nominations for key employees;
— prepare support packages (job offer, proof of employment, employer letters) according to the requirements of the specific stream;
— expect more frequent selections and higher competition for quotas — act proactively at the beginning of the year.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) — expanded answers
What are the PNP targets for 2026–2028?
91,500 in 2026; 92,500 in 2027–2028. This is a return to a stable “corridor” after the one-time reduction of 2025.
What is Ontario’s approximate quota for 2026?
Around 17,872 nominations by projection (+66.36% to the 2025 base). Final allocations by IRCC and the provinces are expected at the beginning of 2026.
Which regions will grow the fastest?
The Atlantic provinces (Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador). In addition to the basic increase, additional allocations during the year are possible due to retention challenges.
How does the PNP relate to Express Entry in 2026–2028?
The PNP is approaching EE in admissions volume, ensuring regional targeting. Together they form a balanced architecture: EE — nationwide competitiveness, PNP — local needs and ties to a province.
When will official provincial allocations for 2026 be announced?
Traditionally — at the beginning of the year after negotiations between IRCC and the jurisdictions. Publication is done either by the provinces themselves or by the federal department.
How will the increase in targets affect applicants in 2026–2028?
More opportunities for nomination, more frequent selections, a wider palette of occupations, and a faster processing tempo, which is especially important for graduates and TFW.
Which sectors will benefit the most?
Health care, construction, skilled trades, technology, early childhood development/education — they consistently dominate provincial priorities.
Does nomination guarantee obtaining PR?
No. A nomination significantly increases the chances, but it is necessary to meet federal eligibility and admissibility requirements and submit complete, verified information.
Which provinces will have the highest quotas in 2026 (projections)?
Top five: Ontario (~17,872), Alberta (~8,266), Manitoba (~7,904), British Columbia (~6,654), Saskatchewan (~6,033). Together — about 70% of all PNP admissions in 2026 according to your projections.
Which provinces are most newcomer-friendly within the PNP?
Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Alberta — given the accessibility of streams, integration support, and nomination chances. At the same time, the decisive factor remains the match between the profile and the specific PNP requirements.
Key risks and cautions
- The discrepancy between the “sum of projections” and the national targets. Nominations ≠ admissions; there are lags and dependent family members.
- Updates to criteria throughout the year. Provinces may temporarily pause/adjust streams according to allocations (as in 2024–2025).
- Retention in the Atlantic. Potential additional quotas do not guarantee worker retention without employers and local ties.
- Processing times. Even with increased targets, actual “landings” will shift over time.
Conclusion
The 2026–2028 plan returns the PNP to the centre of economic immigration policy. After a short-term reduction in 2025, the volumes effectively recover to the levels of 2023–2024, ensuring stability, predictability, and long-term planning for provinces, employers, and applicants. By 2028, the provinces will collectively form approximately a quarter of all new permanent residents, cementing the PNP as a cornerstone of Canada’s regional economic development.
