…As of June 30, 2025
Co-Author: Immigration Consultant Bohdana Stepanenko-Lypovyk, Maple Land Immigration Services
Humanitarian and Compassionate Grounds (H&C) constitute an exceptional mechanism of Canada’s immigration system that allows decision-makers to take into account individual life circumstances of applicants who do not meet the requirements of standard immigration programs.
For Ukrainians after 2022, this tool has become one of the key avenues for stabilization of legal status in Canada, as thousands of families arrived under temporary measures and subsequently sought more permanent solutions.
As of mid-2025, official statistics show a sharp reversal in the Canadian government’s approach. While in 2024 there was a wave of approvals, in 2025 the refusal rate has increased dramatically, and processing activity for Ukrainian cases has slowed to a near halt.
General Statistics on Ukrainian H&C Applications
Comparison of 2024 and 2025
Indicator | 2024 | First half of 2025 | Change |
Number of decisions on Ukrainian H&C applications | 1,901 (annual) ≈ 950 (half-year) | 26 | –97% |
Total number of Ukrainian applications still in process | – | 13,752 | – |
Total number of H&C applications (all countries) | – | 54,585 | – |
Share of Ukrainian applications among total | – | 25% | – |
Note: Applications without Acknowledgement of Receipt (AOR) are excluded from these statistics.
Analysis:
- In 2025, only 26 Ukrainian cases have been finalized, compared with nearly 2,000 in 2024.
- Over 13,700 Ukrainian families remain in limbo, awaiting decisions.
- Processing activity has effectively collapsed: a 97% drop compared with the prior year.
Refusals: Dynamics and Global Comparison
Ukraine’s Trends
- 2024:
- Global average refusal rate: 34%.
- Ukraine: 7% (one of the lowest worldwide).
- 2025:
- Global average refusal rate: 59%.
- Ukraine: 59% — exactly aligned with the global average.
This reflects a shift from preferential treatment in 2024 to a return to “regular practice” in 2025, with much higher refusal rates.
Comparison with Other Countries (2025, countries with over 1,000 applications)
Country | Applications | Refusal Rate |
🇭🇹 Haiti | 1,499 | 15% |
🇭🇰 Hong Kong | 11,891 | 43% |
🇮🇳 India | 4,466 | 97% |
🇲🇽 Mexico | 1,795 | 81% |
🇳🇬 Nigeria | 1,149 | 79% |
🇨🇳 China | 7,349 | 8% |
🇺🇦 Ukraine | 13,752 | 59% |
Analysis:
- Ukraine now belongs to the high-refusal group (over 50%), alongside Mexico and Nigeria.
- By contrast, China and Haiti maintain much lower refusal rates (8% and 15% respectively).
- India shows the most extreme outcome, with a 97% refusal rate, possibly linked to volume, quality of submissions, or heightened fraud concerns.
Reasons Behind the Shift
- Freezing of Ukrainian H&C Cases.
Processing of Ukrainian applications has slowed to a near stop. A plausible explanation is the government’s reliance on alternative measures — notably the possibility of extending open work permits (OWPs) for Ukrainians by another three years — reducing the perceived need for approvals under H&C. - Political Dimension in 2024.
In 2024 there was a wave of approvals, particularly for Ukrainians, arguably influenced by political considerations. In 2025, the government appears to have reverted to regular practice, with significantly higher refusal rates. - Projected Consequences.
If current trends continue, the number of processed H&C cases in 2025 could be 38% lower than in 2024, exacerbating the backlog of pending applications.
Consequences for Ukrainian Applicants
- Prolonged Legal Uncertainty. More than 13,700 families remain without decisions, preventing them from making long-term plans in Canada.
- Sharp Increase in Refusals. From 7% in 2024 to 59% in 2025, creating heightened risks of negative outcomes, including removal orders.
- Community Impact. The Ukrainian community in Canada faces a loss of predictability in legal mechanisms, increasing stress, instability, and undermining integration efforts.
Conclusions
- Ukrainian H&C applications in 2025 are barely being processed: only 26 finalized out of thousands.
- The refusal rate has surged to 59%, erasing the preferential conditions Ukrainians saw in 2024.
- Thousands of families remain in a legal vacuum, dependent on temporary permits but unable to secure permanent status.
- Unless policy changes, the volume of approvals in 2025 will fall by at least 38%, with refusal rates remaining high.
📌 Overall, the situation of Ukrainian H&C applications in 2025 is deeply concerning. It reflects a systemic shift by IRCC towards restricting this pathway, leaving many families in Canada exposed to prolonged insecurity and at risk of refusal.
